Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures closed the Tuesday session with 6 to 7 3/4 cent gains in most contracts. USDA reported another private export sale of 278,200 MT of corn for 19/20 delivery to Mexico. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed just PA and NC ahead of the average maturity pace for the crop. NASS will add harvest progress for the 18 tracked states next week. Condition ratings were down 6 points on the Brugler500 index to 347. By state NE (-12) and IL (-14) took the biggest hit in conditions this week, as IA was up 1 point and conditions in MO rose 7 points. Prior to Thursday’s monthly USDA update, analysts expect to see a 41 mbu jump to old crop ending stocks at 2.401 bbu. New crop is seen dropping 251 mbu on a cut to production at 1.93 bbu. Brazil’s corn crop is expected to be 99.98 MMT according to CONAB, up 0.672 MMT from their previous estimate. USDA is using 101 MMT.

SEP 19 Corn closed at $3.48 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.61 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Corn closed at $3.74 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents

MAY 20 Corn closed at $3.83 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures posted 12 to 14 1/4 cent gains in the nearby contracts on Tuesday. Soybean meal was $4.40/ton, with soy oil 12 points higher. A rumor was working its way through the mill this morning that China is expected to buy more US Ag products, though advisor Navarro downplayed any expectations. A private export sale of 138,000 MT of 19/20 soybeans were reported to Mexico by USDA this morning. They also reported sale of 195,750 MT of soybean meal to Mexico for 19/20 (155,000 MT) and 20/21 (40,750 MT) delivery. USDA is expected to show a reduction of 25 mbu to old crop ending stocks to 1.045 bbu on Thursday. New crop carryout is estimated to be cut by 101 mbu to 654 mbu. CONAB updated their 18/19 Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 115.03 MMT, a slight increase from Aug and vs. USDA’s 117 MMT.

SEP 19 Soybeans closed at $8.59 1/4, up 14 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $8.72, up 14 1/4 cents,

JAN 20 Soybeans closed at $8.85 3/4, up 13 3/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $8.99, up 13 1/4 cents,

SEP 19 Soybean Meal closed at $292.90, up $4.40,

SEP 19 Soybean Oil closed at $28.38, up $0.12

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures saw 4 to 7 3/4 cent gains in most contracts on Tuesday, disregarding soon to expire Sep. Gains in corn supported the market. Ahead of Thursday’s USDA reports, analysts expect to see very little change to the 19/20 US wheat carry out estimate, up 2 mbu to 1.016 bbu. South Korea purchased 76,000 MT of US wheat in a tender on Tuesday. The French Farm Ministry raised their 19/20 wheat production estimate by 1.25 MMT to 39.45 MMT.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.82 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.03 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.03 3/4, up 7 cents

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures ended the Tuesday session with most nearby contracts $1.95 to $2.35 higher. They hit the lowest price on the front month continuation chart since 2010 on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were up $1.075 to $1.90 higher in the nearby contracts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was 33 cents lower on September 9 at $137.44. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Tuesday afternoon. Choice boxes were down $1.57 at $225.38, with Select boxes 94 cents lower @ $200.98. USDA estimated this week’s FI cattle slaughter @ 231,000. That is down 8,000 head from the same week a year ago. A total of 636 head are listed for sale in this week’s FCE online auction.

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $96.150, up $1.950,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $101.225, up $2.050,

FEB 20 Cattle closed at $108.425, up $2.350,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $133.900, up $1.075

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $131.050, up $1.225

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $130.700, up $1.900

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures settled 12.5 cents to $1.825 higher in most contracts on Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 94 cents at $63.75 on September 6. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was up 8 cents on Tuesday afternoon at $71.99. One would have expected a bigger pop in the cutout if the Chinese were actually buying. The national average base hog value was $1.72 lower at $48.93. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 970,000 head through Tuesday, 40,000 head above the same week in 2018. We will have to have a number of weeks later this fall with 2.5-2.6 million head runs.

OCT 19 Hogs closed at $62.725, up $0.125,

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $61.775, up $1.825

FEB 20 Hogs closed at $69.150, up $0.875

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures closed the day with most contracts 12 to 64 points higher following a drop to crop conditions ratings. Condition ratings were shown falling 5% to 43% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index dropping 13 points to 328. That is the lowest rating of the 2019 season. By state, TX lost another 12 points, with GA down 2 and TN deteriorating 33 points. The Cotlook A Index was down 50 points on September 9 at 70.15 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 51.57, and still below loan rate.

OCT 19 Cotton closed at 59.76, up 64 points,

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 59.17, up 19 points

MAR 20 Cotton closed at 59.84, up 25 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 60.45, up 12 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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