Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are up 5 to 7 3/4 cents in most contracts on Tuesday. USDA reported another private export sale of 278,200 MT of corn for 19/20 delivery to Mexico. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed just PA and NC ahead of the average maturity pace for the crop. NASS will add harvest progress for the 18 tracked states next week. Condition ratings were down 3% to 55% gd/ex, a bigger drop than expected as the Brugler500 index was down 6 points to 347. The average trade estimate for Thursday is 167.2 bpa. By state NE (-12) and IL (-14) took the biggest hit in conditions this week, as IA was up 1 point and conditions in MO rose 7 points. Brazil’s corn crop is expected to be 99.98 MMT according to CONAB, up 0.672 MMT from their previous estimate. USDA is using 101 MMT.

SEP 19 Corn is at $3.48 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $3.60 1/4, up 6 cents,

MAR 20 Corn is at $3.73 1/4, up 6 cents

MAY 20 Corn is at $3.82, up 5 1/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures are mostly 12 to 14 1/2 cents higher on Tuesday. Soybean meal is up $4.50/ton, with soy oil 6 points higher, A rumor was working its way through the wires this morning that China is expected to agree to buy more US Ag products. A private export sale of 138,000 MT of 19/20 soybeans were reported to Mexico by USDA this morning. They also reported sale of 195,750 MT of soybean meal to Mexico for 19/20 (155,000 MT) and 20/21 (40,750 MT) delivery. Crop Progress data showed conditions nearly unch at 55% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index rising 2 points to 350 on an improvement in the poorer rated crop areas. IL was down 11 points on the week, with IN 3 lower and NE down 5 on the Brugler500. Ratings in IA (+2), MN (+1), MO (+3), and the Dakotas were all reported higher. CONAB updated their 18/19 Brazilian soybean crop estimate to 115.03 MMT, a slight increase from Aug and vs. USDA’s 117 MMT.

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.52 1/4, up 7 1/4 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $8.72 1/4, up 14 1/2 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans are at $8.86 1/4, up 14 1/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans are at $8.99 1/4, up 13 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 Soybean Meal is at $293.00, up $4.50,

SEP 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.32, up $0.06

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are 3 to 7 cents higher in most contracts, disregarding soon to expire Sep. Ahead of Thursday’s USDA reports, analysts expect to see very little change to the 19/20 US wheat carry out estimate, up 2 mbu to 1.016 bbu. Monday’s afternoon Crop Progress report showed the spring wheat crop 71% harvested as of Sunday, with the normal pace at 87%. Winter wheat planting pace will be reported next week. South Korea purchased 76,000 MT of US wheat in a tender on Tuesday. The French Farm Ministry raised their 19/20 wheat production estimate by 1.25 MMT to 39.45 MMT.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.79 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.01 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.03 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are up $1.275 to $1.525 in the front months. They hit the lowest price on the front month continuation chart since 2010 on Monday. Feeder cattle futures are 87.5 cents to $1.60 higher in the nearby contracts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was 59 cents lower on September 6 at $137.77. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Tuesday morning. Choice boxes were down 63 cents at $226.32, with Select boxes 28 cents lower @ $201.67. USDA 5-area cash cattle prices last week were the lowest since 2016. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter @ 115,000. That is down 4,000 head from the same week a year ago. A total of 636 head are listed for sale in this week’s FCE online auction.

OCT 19 Cattle are at $95.475, up $1.275,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $100.575, up $1.400,

FEB 19 Cattle are at $107.600, up $1.525,

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $133.700, up $0.875

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $131.125, up $1.300

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle are at $130.400, up $1.600

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are trading 57.5 cents to $1.85 higher in the front months on Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 56 cents at $64.69 on September 5. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was up $1.25 on Tuesday morning at $73.16. The butt and picnic were the only primals reported lower. The national average base hog value was $1.36 lower at $49.29. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 485,000 head for Monday, even with the same week in 2018.

OCT 19 Hogs are at $63.175, up $0.575,

DEC 19 Hogs are at $61.800, up $1.850

FEB 19 Hogs are at $69.500, up $1.225

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are up 46 to 61 points in most contracts on Tuesday. After Monday’s close, the weekly Crop Progress report indicated that 43% of the US cotton crop had bolls open as of 9/8 vs. the 37% average. Harvest was 7% complete as of Sunday and 1% faster than normal. Condition ratings were shown falling 5% to 43% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index dropping 13 points to 328. That is the lowest rating of the 2019 season. By state, TX lost another 12 points, with GA down 2 and TN deteriorating 33 points. The Cotlook A Index was down 50 points on September 9 at 70.15 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 51.57, and still below loan rate.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 59.72, up 60 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 59.54, up 56 points

MAR 20 Cotton is at 60.2, up 61 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 60.79, up 46 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.