Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 3 to 4 cents higher this morning. They closed steady to 1 3/4 cents lower in most contracts on Monday. Export inspections were only 590,013 MT during the week that ended on September 5, with 449,958 MT of that leaving ports during the new MY. Monday’s Crop Progress report showed that 55% of the US corn crop was dented by Sunday vs. the 77% average, with 11% reported mature (vs. 24% avg). Condition ratings were down 3% to 55% gd/ex, a bigger drop than expected as the Brugler500 index was down 6 points to 347. That is the worst overall condition rating of the crop year. It drops the Best Fit yield potential to 168.6 bpa from 171 the previous week, if we are still at that number in October. The average trade production guess for Thursday’s report is 13.672 billion bushels, with analysts on average estimating USDA will drop yield 2.3 to 167.2 bpa.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures are 2 to 4 cents higher today after settling close to UNCH on Monday. Soybean meal was up $1.30/ton, with soy oil 22 points lower. Crop Progress data showed 92% of the US soybean crop was setting pods as of Sunday compared to the 99% average. NASS also reported conditions nearly unch at 55% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index rising 2 points to 350 on an improvement in the poorer rated crop areas. USDA tallied a total of 906,029 MT of soybeans exported in the week of 9/5, with 501,778 MT shipped after Sep 1. That was down 29.79% from the previous week and 2.3% lower than the same week last year. Of the total 408,772 MT was headed to China. The average trade guess for US soy production on Thursday is 3.577 billion bushels, as yield is seen down 1.3 from August to 47.2 bpa.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are 2 to 5 cents per bushel higher this morning. They saw 2 to 10 3/4 cent gains in most contracts on Monday, with traders bottom picking ahead of Thursday’s USDAs reports. Preliminary open interest in Chicago rose 8,714 contracts on Monday, net new buying rather than the expected short covering. The afternoon Crop Progress report showed the spring wheat crop 71% harvested as of Sunday, with the normal pace at 87%. Condition ratings are not reported after 50% of the crop has been harvested. All wheat shipments in the week of September 5 were 402,486 MT. That was a drop of 27.94% from the previous week and 8.86% lower than the same week last year. Australia’s ABARES cut their 19/20 wheat production estimate by 2.7 MMT from their previous estimate to 21.9 MMT.

Source: Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures ended the Monday session with front months 32.5 to 67.5 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were down 52.5 cents to $1.575 in the nearby contracts. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was 59 cents lower on September 6 at $137.77. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 36 cents at $226.95, with Select boxes 2 cents lower @ $201.92. USDA 5-area cash cattle prices last week were the lowest since 2016. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter @ 115,000. That is down 4,000 head from the same week a year ago.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted 90 cent to $2.575 losses in the front months on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down another 56 cents at $64.69 on September 5. The Fresh Bacon Index was down $33.44 from the previous week on Sep 6 at $145.50. The USDA pork carcass cutout value FOB plant was down $1.41 on Monday afternoon at $71.91. The ham, up $1.23, was the only primal reported higher. The national average base hog value was $1.42 lower at $50.69. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 485,000 head for Monday, even with the same week in 2018.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are trading 8 to 26 points higher to start off your Tuesday. They ended the Monday session with most contracts 24 to 47 points higher. After the close, the weekly Crop Progress report indicated that 43% of the US cotton crop had bolls open as of 9/8 vs. the 37% average. Harvest was 7% complete as of Sunday and 1% faster than normal. Condition ratings were shown falling 5% to 43% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index dropping 13 points to 328. That is the lowest rating of the 2019 season. The Cotlook A Index was up 100 points on September 6 at 70.65 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is now 51.57, and still below loan rate.

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

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1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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