Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading firm to 2 cents higher in most contracts on Wednesday, ignoring soon to expire July. Spillover from strength in soybeans is supportive at midday. This morning’s EIA report showed weekly ethanol production backing off by 34,000 barrels per day in the holiday week of July 5. Weekly production averaged 1.047 million bpd, which was still slightly above the same week last year. Stocks of ethanol were up another 165,000 barrels to 23.009 million barrels. Ahead of Thursday’s monthly USDA update, trade estimates are looking for a slight drop to US production at 13.664 bbu according to a Reuters poll. That comes even though NASS estimated higher planted acreage on June 28, with trade average yield pegged at 165 bpa (-1 mo/mo). WAOB has used the NASS number from the Planted Acreage report every year, and only adjusted the harvested acreage once (1993), in the past 27 years. Analysts estimate that 150,000-400,000 MT of old crop corn was sold for export in the week of July 4, with 100,000-300,000 MT for new crop.

JUL 19 Corn is at $4.31 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

SEP 19 Corn is at $4.34 1/2, up 2 cents,

DEC 19 Corn is at $4.39 1/4, up 2 cents

MAR 20 Corn is at $4.45 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean futures are up 8 to 9 cents in the front months at midday. Nearby July soybean meal us up 80 cents/ton, with soy oil 13 points lower. US 2019 soybean production is expected to be reduced in Thursday’s USDA balance sheet update, with estimates running 3.866 bbu from Bloomberg survey of analysts (-284 from June). The main reason for that would be the drop to acreage seen in the June 28 report, but yield on average is also seen a dropping 1 bpa to 48.5 bpa. Thursday’s Export Sales report is expected to show 200,000-400,000 MT of 18/19 soybean sales in the week ending on July 4, with 19/20 sales pegged at 50,000-350,000 MT. Meal bookings are expected in the range of 50,000-300,000 MT, with soy oil at 5,000-25,000 MT.

JUL 19 Soybeans are at $8.91 3/4, up 9 cents,

AUG 19 Soybeans are at $8.94, up 8 cents,

SEP 19 Soybeans are at $8.99 3/4, up 8 cents,

NOV 19 Soybeans are at $9.12 1/4, up 8 cents,

JUL 19 Soybean Meal is at $308.70, up $0.80,

JUL 19 Soybean Oil is at $27.75, down $0.13

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat futures are steady to 5 cents higher in most contracts at midday. All wheat export bookings for the week that ended on July 4 are estimated at 250,000-550,000 MT, ahead of Thursday’s Export Sales report. The USDA Ag Attaché in Australia pegs the 19/20 wheat crop at 21.5 MMT, vs. the official USDA estimate of 22.5 MMT from June. Any changes to that official number would come via tomorrow’s WASDE. Analysts expect to see a ~1.86 MMT drop in the 19/20 world carryout projection to 292.48 MMT. A total of 80,000 MT of US wheat was purchased by two South Korean importers on Wednesday.

SEP 19 CBOT Wheat is at $5.06 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

SEP 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.41, up 1 3/4 cents,

SEP 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.31, up 4 1/2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures are down 45 to 55 cents in the nearby contracts. Feeder cattle futures are down 5 to 42.5 cents in most contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.07 @ $135.44 on July 8. Wholesale boxed beef prices were lower again on Wednesday morning. Choice boxes were down 80 cents at $213.93 with Select boxes $1.18 lower @ $190.91. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 241,000 head. That was 2000 below last week and 3,000 head above the same week last year. This morning’s FCE auction showed no sales on the 423 head of cattle offered. Very light bids of $180 in NE have been reported.

AUG 19 Cattle are at $107.575, down $0.550,

OCT 19 Cattle are at $108.750, down $0.550,

DEC 19 Cattle are at $113.250, down $0.450,

AUG 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.525, down $0.350

SEP 19 Feeder Cattle are at $143.000, down $0.125

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle are at $142.975, down $0.050

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures are posting triple digit gains in most contracts, ignoring nearby July. August is using some of the expanded limits for today. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 67 cents from the previous day @ $71.25 on July 8. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.24 in the Wednesday AM report at $72.53. The national average base hog price was up 94 cents on Wednesday at $67.90. Estimated week to date FI hog slaughter was 957,000 head. That was up 26,000 head from last Tuesday and 57,000 head larger than same week last year.

JUL 19 Hogs are at $71.925, up $0.550,

AUG 19 Hogs are at $82.300, up $3.225

OCT 19 Hogs are at $73.900, up $2.900

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures are showing 29 to 74 point gains in most contracts at midday. USDA will update their monthly S&D tables on Thursday, as well as release the weekly Export Sales report. Fed Chairman Powell hinted at a possible cut to interest rates in their meeting later this month, citing global economic slowdown and uncertainty from the current trade disputes. The Cotlook A index for July 9 was down 120 points from the previous day at 76.65 cents/lb. The USDA AWP is 59.32 cents/lb through Thursday.

OCT 19 Cotton is at 63.77, up 74 points,

DEC 19 Cotton is at 63.84, up 56 points

MAR 19 Cotton is at 65.13, up 46 points

MAY 20 Cotton is at 66.03, up 29 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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