Ag Valley Coop -

Hogs Mostly Higher so far

Alan Brugler - Barchart - Mon May 03, 4:39PM UTC

Related Stocks

HEK24 - Lean Hogs

Sym	Last	Chg	Pct
HEK24	95.275s	-2.075	-2.13%
HEN24	107.800s	-2.050	-1.87%
KMK24	105.250s	unch	unch

Through midday of the first trade day of May, lean hog futures are up by triple digits. May hogs are 20 cents in the red. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Monday morning was down $3.61 to $108.15. The April 29 Lean Hog Index from CME was unchanged at $106.89.

USDA’s Ag Attaché reported China’s hog herd rebuilding pace is likely to stall or be pushed back until mid-late 2021. The Ag Attaché cited new ASF strains and recent outbreaks as limitations to the breeding herd from fall last year through April. The new strains have lower sow mortality rate (and thus remain more difficult to detect) but reduce pigs per litter and increase piglet mortality. The Beijing Attaché estimates the ASF mortality rate (including culling) for breeding sows was between 20-50% depending on the area. USDA’s Ag Attaché also declared high feed costs and a price drop in pork (due to seasonally low demand and imports) are also limiting producer expansion.

Pork cutout futures are also up by triple digits led by a $3.70 gain for July contracts. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $1.83 higher in the AM report at $112.29 cwt. Most of the primals were firm, though picnics were up $9.56. USDA estimated last week’s federally inspected hog slaughter at 2.454 million head through Saturday. That was 19,000 head below last week’s pace.

May 21 Hogs are at $110.250, up $0.125,

Jul 21 Hogs are at $111.375, up $2.125

Jun 21 Pork Cutout is at $117.450, up $2.200,

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